How would you rate the federal government's handling of the economy?

Background

The U.S. economy in early 2026 presents a mixed picture that has intensified public debate about federal economic stewardship. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026, rebounding from a sluggish 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, which was dragged down by a six-week federal government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports unemployment stood at 4.3 percent in March 2026 and the Consumer Price Index rose 3.3 percent over the prior twelve months, with a sharp 0.9 percent monthly jump in March driven partly by rising gasoline prices linked to Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office projects the federal deficit at $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2026 and debt held by the public at 101 percent of GDP, well above the 50-year historical average. Against this backdrop, the 2025 reconciliation act delivered broad tax cuts and spending increases, while a sweeping tariff regime and reduced immigration have reshaped trade and labor dynamics. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling struck down certain tariffs imposed under emergency powers, adding further policy uncertainty.

Those who view the government's economic management favorably point to continued GDP growth, strong business investment driven by AI-related capital spending, and real wages that generally outpaced inflation through most of the past year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted in late April that growth remains solid across the economy, supported by consumer spending and robust data center demand. Critics, however, argue that elevated inflation, rising energy costs, and a ballooning national debt signal deeper problems. According to Pew Research Center, 52 percent of Americans say current presidential policies have made the economy worse, while only 28 percent say they have made it better, with stark partisan divisions — 57 percent of Republicans say policies have improved the economy versus just 3 percent of Democrats. A Peter G. Peterson Foundation poll from April 2026 found that 92 percent of voters across party lines are concerned that the national debt is driving up their personal cost of living.

The stakes of this debate are significant heading into the 2026 midterm elections. The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research describes the current environment as one of remarkable resilience amid increased policy uncertainty, noting that affordability — particularly for health care, housing, and food — will be a top concern for voters. The CBO projects that without changes, debt will reach 120 percent of GDP by 2036, crowding out private investment and increasing borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve faces the delicate task of balancing above-target inflation against a labor market that researchers at the St. Louis Fed describe as settling into a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. How policymakers navigate tariff policy, fiscal sustainability, interest rate decisions, and cost-of-living pressures will shape economic conditions for households, businesses, and future generations.